| dc.description.abstract | Global croplands, pastures, and human settlements Have expanded in recent decades.
This is accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with
considerable losses of biodiversity. In sub-Saharan Africa, policies are implemented without critical
consideration; e.g., agricultural expansions impair ecosystem services. We studied land use/cover
and the associated rate of change for four time epochs, i.e., 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021. This employed
remote sensing and GIS techniques for analysis, while future projections were modeled using cellular
automata and the Markov chain. The kappa coefficient statistics were used to assess the accuracy
of the final classified image, while reference images for accuracy assessment were developed based
on ground truthing. Overall change between 1991 and 2021 showed that major percentage losses
were experienced by water, forest, woodland, and wetland, which decreased by 8222 Ha (44.11%),
426,161 Ha (35.72%), 399,584 Ha (35.01%), and 105,186 Ha (34.82%), respectively. On the other Hand,
a percentage increase during the same period was experienced in cultivated land, built-up areas, and
grasslands, which increased by 659,346 Ha (205.28%), 11,894 Ha (159.93%), and 33,547 Ha (98.47%),
respectively. However, this expansion of thirsty sectors Has not reversed the increasing amount of
water discharged out of the Kilombero River catchment. We recommend the promotion of agroforests
along with participatory law enforcement and capacity building of local communities’ institutions. | en_US |
